There is a saying "can't miss" in sports thrown around a couple times a year at collegiate prospects who many believe have star-potential at the next level. Particularly in the sport of basketball, one player per year is deemed to be impossible to pass on and has multiple all-star appearances in their future. This is the player who will be at the top of every team's draft board heading into draft night, and the first one off it. This player usually has traits of either speed, quickness, a great shot, an already developed post-game, or incredible size. However, with the fame and stardom of going number one, comes the lofty expectations of success, and the hindsight of better players being selected after. Many general managers are known for being able to draft better than others, but a look into the 2000s' number one picks suggests otherwise. The truth behind it all, is that there is actually very little skill, and a lot of luck behind it. The examination of the #1 picks through the years 2000-2009 (the jury is still out on John Wall) lends to the idea that there have been five busts, one all-star (Blake Griffin, with more to come), and four franchise altering players. This vast array of player talent shows no pattern, but the way a single stroke of luck can change a franchise for a generation. The 2000 number one overall pick was taken by the New Jersey Nets out of Cincinnati. Kenyon Martin was a first team all-american in college who had an exceptional career. The Nets were coming off one of the worst seasons in franchise history and hoped that the 6'9 Martin was the man to do it. Although Martin turned into an okay defensive player late into his career, Martin was a bust by the scouts standards. Martin has a career average of a little over 13 points and 7 rebounds per game. He made two finals appearances as the third best player on the Nets. In his prime, he made only one all-star appearance since being drafted. However, Martin is blessed with the fact that his draft his entire draft class produced only 3 total all-star appearance(Michael Redd and Jamal Magloire), and only four other quality players in Mike Miller(5th), Jamal Crawford(8th), Hedo Terkoglu(16th), and Deshawn Stevenson(23rd).
The Washington Wizards were a helpless franchise following the 2001 season. With the worst record in basketball, they struck a ray of light by acquiring the #1 pick through the draft lottery. With very little skill, but unbelievable raw athletic ability, Kwame Brown told Wizards personnel he would prove them right if they selected him. Kwame was jumping straight from high school, something that had been successful already for stars such as Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, and Tracy McGrady. Kwame became the poster child for a player who isn’t ready for the NBA. With career averages of 6.8 points per game and 5.6 rebounds per game, Kwame was traded within his first 4 seasons with the Wizards. Unfortunately, Kwame did not have Kenyon's benefit of a weak class. The 2001 class includes seven all-stars, such as Pau Gasol(3rd), Joe Johnson(10th), Zach Randolph(19th), Gerald Wallace(25th), Tony Parker(28th), Gilbert Arenas(30th), and Mehmet Okur(37th). On top of that many good, long time starters came out of this class including Tyson Chandler(2nd), Jason Richardson(5th), Shane Battier(6th), Richard Jefferson(13th), Troy Murphy(14th), Brendan Haywood(20th), Samuel Dalembert(26th), and Jamaal Tinsley(27th).
The first superstar number one pick of the last decade was on a prospect that defined “can’t miss” both figuratively and literally. In 2002, the Houston Rockets appeared to have an angel watching over them as they won the lottery with just the 5th best chances. This gave them the opportunity to select Yao Ming, the young 7’6 center out of China. Yao had been dominating Chinese basketball since he was 14 and had finally been eligible for the NBA draft. Yao was the first number one pick ever, to be picked straight out of a non- U.S. country (Akeem Olijuwuan had lived in U.S. and played college hoops in America before being drafted). Yao is the stud of his draft with career averages of 19.8 points per game and 9.3 rebounds per game, as well as making the all-star team eight of out of his first nine NBA seasons.
The 2003 draft class was declared the future of the league before the high school and college basketball seasons had even begun. The “king” of all this hype was the one the scouts proclaimed “The Chosen One” LeBron James. Lebron’s fame and stardom quickly spiraled into a national phenomenon as his games were nationally televised as a junior, and his high school team traveled much like professionals. Even with college stars putting on shows during march madness (Carmelo with Syracuse and Wade with Marquette), the fans could not look past the sight of 6’8, 19 year old LeBron. The hometown Cleveland Cavaliers won the lottery and drafted him, putting the franchise on his shoulder’s and praying for the next MJ. The expectations for LeBron only piled on when he signed a 7 year 100 million dollar shoe contract with sports empire Nike before ever playing in an NBA game. Thankfully, he has lived up to the hype and more. Lebron is already a seven time all star, was rookie of the year, has made three first team all-defense, won two MVP’s, and has led his team to the finals twice. James career averages of 27.7 points per game, 7.1 rebounds per game, and 7 assists are nearly as staggering as his off the court appeal. LeBron also became the biggest attraction to the sport, as his televised event “The Decision” remains one of ESPN’s highest rated broadcasts ever, while sparking national interest.
The 2004 number one pick remains one of the most interesting selections in the history of the NBA draft. With all of the interest surrounding the 2003 NBA draft, the polar opposite encased 2004. The two prospects at the time vying for the right to be number one was high school standout 6’11 Dwight Howard from Atlanta, and Emeka Okafor 6’11 star for the National Champion Uconn Huskies. Scouts at the combine declared Howard an unfinished product with Okafor being the more experienced and complete player. The thought that Okafor would go first was nearly consensus until about three weeks prior to the draft. In those weeks, news about Okafor’s recurring back pain and injuries scared GM’s around the league about selecting him first overall. The scare was enough for the Orlando Magic, who selected Howard first overall. Howard was booed by the MSG crowd at the time, but the Magic could never be happier with their decision. Howard is a five-time all star, three time defensive player of the year, has led the NBA in blocks and double doubles twice, and rebounding three times. Howard averages a double-double for his career with 18.2 points per game and 12.9 rebounds per game. He has also led the Magic to their lone NBA finals appearance of the decade in the 2008-2009 season.
The 2005 Milwaukee Bucks had a dilemma. They lacked the two most essential components of a winning basketball team. A quality center or point guard. In the previous five drafts, all the number one picks had selected a player 6’8 or taller. The Bucks chose to select a good solid college center of Utah, Andrew Bogut. By all standards Bogut has had an average career. He averages a 12.7 and 9.4 for his career and has never made an all-star team. Much like Kwame Brown, Bogut and the Bucks will be forever haunted by the numerous picks the numerous picks they passed on including two future superstars just two and three picks later in Deron Williams and Chris Paul. The draft class also included better longtime starters than Bogut, like Raymond Felton, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger (2-time all-star), and David Lee(all-star). Monta Ellis, a potential star was also selected in the second round of this draft just four picks after Milwaukee in the second round.
The term shallow, was a phrase scouts used to describe the 2006 draft class. With no census number one pick, the Toronto Raptors hoped to catch lightning in a bottle “Dirk Style” by selecting foreign big man Andrea Bargnani. Bargnani was known for his ability to shoot the rock from deep even at a staggering seven feet tall, but was also recognized by many scouts as soft and undeveloped. During his career, Bargnani averages 15.1 points per game for his career but just a mere 4.9 rebounds as well. Luckily for the Raptors, only two players, Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo, have made an all-star team, and only them plus LaMarcus Aldridge have made an All-NBA team.
The 2007 number one pick is a tragedy of sorts. Two college stars in Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were vying to be the number one pick of the Portland Trailblazers. The NBA draft combine however scared the team away from Durant noting his lack of bench reps as a sign of weakness. The Blazers went on to select Oden first overall, aware that Durant’s shadow would always follow if the pick were to fail. Oden was unable to get on the floor for a single minute his first season, and has missed three of his first NBA seasons to knee injuries. In his five seasons since being drafted, he has only started 60 games for the Blazers, while Durant has led his team to the playoffs twice, became the youngest scoring champion ever, and has won the scoring title twice already. As well as the pain of Durant’s success the third overall player taken Al Horford has also made the all-star team at the same position as Oden.
Before the beginning of the 2008 draft, the Chicago Bulls were blessed with an unbelievable touch of luck. With barely any odds at all, the Bulls somehow snuck their way into the first overall pick, and the right to select either Derrick Rose or Michael Beasely. Rose, a 6’3 point guard, was coming off an incredible season at Memphis in which he led his team within seconds of the schools first national championship. Beasely on the other hand, was the national player of the year at 6’10 and was the best individual player in college hoops that season. The Bulls had a pretty clear decision however, already having 6’8 Luel Deng carrying the load at small forward for them. The Chi-Town native Rose, exploded onto the scene, nabbing rookie of the year honors, and in only his third season, MVP honors while leading the Bulls to a number one seed in the eastern conference. Beasely as well as other top prospect O.J. Mayo have been okay professionals at best, even with the Grizzlies 2010-2011 run to the post-season. Russell Westbrook was second team all-nba in 2010-2011 and should be a great player for years to come. Kevin Love developed into a very good player for this draft-class but a superstar was picked in Derrick Rose.
Heading into the 2009 draft class, consensus number one pick Blake Griffin was laughed at and doomed after being told the Clipper’s were a cursed franchise. Griffin was all smiles after he was picked by LAC at MSG, making him the first number one pick from Oklahoma in NBA history. Much like the critics expected however, Griffin went down for the season after falling down hard off a dunk, in a pre-season game. After missing all of his rookie season however, the “Blake Show” took the league by storm in 2010-2011, leading the league in dunks, while posterizing numerous big men along the way. Griffin won rookie of the year and was named to the NBA all-star team in 2010-2011 his first playing season in the league. This comes as a relief to the Clippers as many possible future stars bless this class including Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Brandon Jennings, or even James Harden (maybe Ricky Rubio).
As America looks ahead to 2011 NBA draft, everyone is to speculate and voice their opinion as to who is more “pro-ready” or terms thrown around about skills such as “uncanny”. The real truth of the matter is that the NBA draft is a large crapshoot. There is a rhyme or reason for a pick, but no specific rhyme or reason for success. There were eight big men selected first in the last decade(Rose and Lebron exceptions). Five were busts, two were franchise changers and one is on his way. Two picks not from America were made. One is an eight-time all-star while the other will never make one. There were three high-school kids taken. Two of them took the game by storm, while the other’s name lives an infamy. The most likely top pick this year will be Kyrie Irving, the Duke point guard who was hurt much of the college season. Does the injury affect him like it affected Oden? Or does he thrive off the doubter’s like Dwight Howard did? If there is one truth to the number one pick at all, it is that there is no strategy that guarantees success. Good luck to Kyrie Irving, it’s your chance now. -Brett Kornfeld GotSportsBlog Contributor
17 comments:
nice korn.
frst off i did not see the 5 busts and second of all kenyon martin is not a bust the nets would have not been in the finals in 02 and 03 if it wasnt for him also i did not understand this part of the article
During his career, Bargnani averages 15.1 points per game for his career but just a mere 4.9 rebounds as well. Luckily for the Raptors, only two player’s, Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo, have made an all-star team, and only them plus LaMarcus Aldridge have made an All-NBA team.
5 busts were Kenyon Martin, Kwame, Bogut, Bargnani, and Oden. Out of the combined 5 players mentioned they have made one all star team. Also if you want to look deeper, Kenyon Martin was the third best player(Jason Kidd/Richard Jefferson) on those teams, not up to the standards of a top pick. The part you didn't understand is tricky wording so my apologies for that. I was saying the Raptors are not remembered poorly for making a massive mistake(like the wizards who missed on 8 future all stars) because only 2 players out of that class have ever made the all-star team.
first off Bargani and Martin are not bust and give Oden some time also bogut had a good season and its not martins fault the j kid and richardosn r good
When you are selected as the next best thing in your class, they think you are a franchsie player. 0 all-star appearances means bust. Its been 6 years for Bogut and 5 for Bargnani. Oden has completely missed 3 of his 5 NBA seasons. On top of that a bust for the NBA and a bust by number one pick comparisons are different.
I understand what you are saying but the level of competition is so different from then and now, that you really cant say they are a bust. If you look at Kenyon Martin, Kwame, Bogut drafts. There arent that many quality players. the only bust would be kwame brown. But Martin and Bogut rank in the top 10 even top 5 in their respective draft.
Unless your draft class is freakishly deep like Kwame's, to not be a #1 pick bust you really need to be a top 3 player out of your class. You are THE BEST player that gets the most money without ever even playing. You can't be a role player like Bogut. He may not be an NBA bust, but he is absolutely a #1 pick bust
Ok but martin is a top 3 player in his draft. Bogut Is a top 10 player. And barnagni is a top 15. But you also have to look at what these players already had on the team the bucks had no one. So how can bogut be a great player with no one to compliment him?
Centers are not normally expected to be dominant like the Shaqs, Howards, and Olajuwons. Even at the the #1 pick, they are supposed to play good defense, rebound, avoid being a liability on offense, and, above all, be tall.
Kenyon Martin did not live up to the hype in every way (not as dominant as people thought, statistics not quite there) but he played like people expected. He wasn't like Kwame Brown (expecting to be a defensive powerhouse, not being one). People knew he was not the greatest rebounder, but they knew he was freakishly athletic and could make a jumper off a post move. They knew he could run in transition. He was not a "dominant" big man, but he worked in the Nets' system. And he was pretty much exactly what we thought he would be, but to a lesser degree. No one thought he was Tim Duncan. No one. No one thought he was Karl Malone. No one. He wasn't going to be a 20-10 guy. He was going to be a dependable starter that provided excitement, provided your team with sparks. NOT A BUST
again what does this mean
During his career, Bargnani averages 15.1 points per game for his career but just a mere 4.9 rebounds as well. Luckily for the Raptors, only two player’s, Brandon Roy and Rajon Rondo, have made an all-star team, and only them plus LaMarcus Aldridge have made an All-NBA team.
The raptors are lucky because although bargnani hasn't panned out, there has been only two players else where who have made an all-star team from that class. Also since 1958, 35 of the 53 number one picks have been multi-time all-star(blake Griffin has more coming as well). Bargnani and Bogut have very well reached their potential as player's and have not made one all-star team. Being serviceable is a bust for the #1 draft pick. You need to be a star if you are picked #1 a multi time all-star, not an excitement fits the system player. You can find a million Kenyon Martin's that were not picked #1. That's why he's a bust
I agree with Kornfeld. Harry I wouldn't be talking because you think Josh Smith is a free agent. If you didnt think that, the Nets would have to trade for him and you didnt remove any players from the Nets roster lol
When it comes down to it, if you are the 2000-2003 Nets, who would you rather have (with the same team around the player you choose)? Kenyon Martin or Michael Redd (the two best players from that draft class)? I would rather have Jason Kidd throwing alley-oops to K-mart then having Michael Redd create a logjam at the SG position. Plus, Redd would be awful for a transition team. K-mart was hands down the best player that year. Even looking back now, the Nets would and should do the same thing all over again.
And not every #1 pick is a hall-of-famer. That does not mean that they are busts, though.
how can you call kenyon martin a bust when he was part of a finals team and was arguably the best player in his draft? i mean, even if he isn't the franchise player you expect, what exactly were the nets supposed to do in that situation?
Its not the nets fault kenyon was a bust. This article does not debate whether the right decision was made but whether or not the player himself was a bust. The nets had no other choices but many of the first round pick in his draft were busts as well. A bust is not defined by who was picked after them but how they individually performed compared to all the #1's before them. As I said earlier 35 out of the 53 #1 picks and there will be more(Duncan, Shaq, Lebron, Yao, Iverson) are HALL OF FAMERS. All of these guys are multi-time all stars and franchise players. Kenyon Martin isn't in these guys class thus he is a #1 pick bust, not an NBA bust but a #1 overall bust by all qualifications.
This article was way too long and did not have a catchy lead. I would highly reccomend that you have something catchy to grab the readers attention such as; "Abra-Kadabra!" or "Sha-pow!" or "Spazz Noodles"
Also i would reccomend that you change the title of this article to something other than "The TRUTH about the NBA's 1st pick" because this is a lousy gimmick that does not make any sense. WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH THE TRUTH?!?!?!?!?!?
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